Some Investigations with a Simple Actuarial Model for Infections Such as COVID-19

Abstract In this chapter the author adds an infection feature to actuarial multiple state model give a simple for such as COVID-19. The is enough be replicated in Excel worksheet, with one row per day of calculations. whole population treated homogenous, no distinction by age, sex or anything else; that extent it unrealistic, but include these features would complicate considerably. To fit observed data requires successive optimisation programme, and described. Different variations allow better take account of, example, immunisation vaccine. It shown past events United Kingdom (U.K.) quite well, has also been fitted other countries, not chapter. this, any model, less use forecasting future, because cannot predict behaviours governments populations. But various assumptions can made about at latest date calculation (1 March 2021), interesting consequences are shown.